Ok, my guess is on:

Left drawer: 0.1

Right drawer: 0.9

Explanation follows…

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Well, I don’t have much experience with causality, but anyway, here’s what I think:

K … got knife

D1 … from Drawer 1

D2 … from Drawer 2

P( D1 | K ) = ( P( D1 ) * P( K | D1 ) ) / P( K ) |

P( D2 | K ) = ( P( D2 ) * P( K | D2 ) ) / P( K ) |

P( D1 ) = 0.5

P( D2 ) = 0.5

P( K ) = 0.5

So…

P( D1 | K ) = P( K | D1 )

and

P( D2 | K ) = P( K | D2 )

Now…

mK … Mate took knife

mF … Mate took fork

P( K | D1 ) = P( mK ) * (1 / 9) + P( mF ) * (0 / 9) (law of total
probability)

P( K | D2 ) = P( mK ) * (9 / 11) + P( mF ) * (10 / 11) (law of total
probability)

P( mK ) = 10 / 12

P( mF ) = 2 / 12

==>

P( D1 | K ) = P( K | D1 ) = 0.925… |

P( D2 | K ) = P( K | D2 ) = 0.833… |

==>

P( D1 | K ) = 0.1 |

P( D2 | K ) = 0.9 |

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Hi guys

i know that i post a problem without my own answer but this problem is

very difficult for me and i’m very comfused.

The exercise says that we must implement the Bayes’ Law to solve the exercise.My problem is that i cant distinguish and write down the events ):

Problem:In my kitchen i put my 10 forks in the left drawer and my 10 knifes in the right drawer.**

before my room mate change something:

k=knife,f=forks

left drawer : (10f,0k)

right drawer: (0f,10k))

**

When my room-mate came he took 2 forks from the left drawer and he put them in the right drawer.

**

after my room mate’s alteration:

left drawer : (8f,0k)

right drawer: (2f,10k)

**

After this action he chooses one piece(knife or fork) from the right drawer and he puts the piece in the left drawer.

**

left drawer : (9f,0k) or (8f,1k)

right drawer: (1f,10k) or (2f,9k)

**

After all these changes i come and choose one piece from 1 of the 2 drawers.

IF Is given that i hold a knife,what is the probability that i opened the left drawer?